Crystal Ball's Economic and Housing Outlook

November 27, 2007

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  Annual Data ** 2007 2008 2009
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
Economic Activity
Real GDP Bil. 2000$ 11,004 11,319 11,567 11,903 12,241 11,413 11,520 11,631 11,703 11,784 11,863 11,942 12,025 12,108 12,195 12,285 12,376
% Chge AR 3.1% 2.9% 2.2% 2.9% 2.8% 0.6% 3.8% 3.9% 2.5% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0%
Resid. Fixed Inv. 2000$ 597.1 569.5 477.6 441.6 488.0 506.3 490.7 463.9 449.4 442.4 437.4 438.9 447.7 416.3 477.8 496.5 516.3
% Chge AR 6.6% -4.6% -16.1% -7.5% 10.5% -16.3% -11.8% -20.1% -11.9% -6.7% -4.4% 1.3% 8.3% 12.7% 15.1% 16.7% 16.9%
Single Family 328.4 302.7 222.7 200.8 234.7 240.2 231.2 215.4 204.0 199.1 197.2 200.3 206.6 216.2 227.7 240.7 254.2
Multifamily 37.8 39.1 36.9 37.6 38.3 38.4 36.7 35.9 36.6 37.4 37.7 37.7 37.7 37.7 37.9 38.4 39.1
Other 230.5 227.9 219.7 204.9 216.8 229.4 224.5 214.5 210.6 207.7 204.3 202.6 205.1 209.1 214.0 219.2 224.8
Payroll Employment - 000s 133.7 136.2 138.0 139.2 140.7 137.4 137.9 138.2 138.4 138.7 139.1 139.4 139.8 140.1 140.5 140.9 141.3
% Chge AR 1.7% 1.9% 1.3% 0.9% 1.0% 1.5% 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.9% 1.1% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2%
Unemployment Rate - Civilian 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 5.0% 5.1% 4.5% 4.5% 4.6% 4.7% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 5.2% 5.2% 5.1% 5.0%
Prices - Percent Change Annual Rate
GDP - Chain type 3.2% 3.2% 2.6% 2.0% 2.2% 4.2% 2.7% 0.8% 1.5% 2.6% 2.1% 2.0% 2.2% 2.5% 2.1% 1.9% 2.1%
PPI - Finished Goods 4.9% 2.9% 3.5% 2.4% 1.7% 6.7% 10.0% 1.0% 3.1% 1.8% 1.6% 1.8% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.4% 1.6%
CPI - Urban Consumers 3.4% 3.2% 2.7% 2.3% 2.1% 3.8% 6.0% 1.9% 2.1% 2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% 2.2% 1.9% 2.3%
Interest Rates
Federal Funds Rate 3.2% 5.0% 5.1% 4.3% 4.4% 5.3% 5.3% 5.1% 4.6% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.5% 4.5%
90 day T Bill Rate 3.2% 4.8% 4.6% 3.8% 4.1% 5.1% 4.9% 4.4% 3.8% 3.4% 3.8% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.2% 4.2%
Treasury Yields
One Year Maturity 3.6% 4.9% 4.6% 4.1% 4.2% 5.0% 4.9% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.3% 4.3%
Ten Year Maturity 4.3% 4.8% 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 4.7% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6% 4.7%
FHLMC Commitment Rates:
Fixed Rate Mortgages 5.9% 6.4% 6.4% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.4% 6.6% 6.3% 6.2% 6.2% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.3% 6.4%
ARMs 4.5% 5.5% 5.6% 5.7% 5.7% 5.5% 5.6% 5.7% 5.6% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.6% 5.6% 5.8% 5.8%
Prime Rate 6.2% 8.0% 8.1% 7.3% 7.4% 8.3% 8.3% 8.1% 7.6% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.5% 7.5%
Housing Activity (000)
Total Housing Starts 2,073 1,812 1,379 1,281 1,446 1,460 1,464 1,304 1,289 1,276 1,257 1,281 1,311 1,357 1,413 1,474 1,539
% Chge AR 6.3% -12.6% -23.0% -17.1% 12.8% -22.1% 1.0% -37.1% -4.4% -4.0% -5.8% 7.9% 9.7% 14.8% 17.6% 18.4% 18.8%
Single Family 1,719 1,474 1,078 975 1,136 1,172 1,166 995 978 966 950 976 1,007 1,054 1,106 1,163 1,222
% Chge AR 7.2% -14.2% -26.9% -9.6% 16.6% -18.0% -2.0% -46.9% -6.8% -4.8% -6.5% 11.4% 13.3% 20.0% 21.2% 22.3% 21.9%
Multifamily 354 338 301 307 310 288 298 308 311 310 307 305 304 303 307 311 317
% Chge AR 2.6% -4.7% -10.7% 1.7% 1.0% -36.5% 14.1% 14.6% 3.5% -1.3% -3.8% -2.6% -1.3% -1.3% 5.4% 5.3% 7.9%
2 to 4 Family 42 41 45 43 41 33 50 52 46 45 44 43 42 41 41 41 40
5 plus Family 304 313 297 279 281 343 293 271 282 280 279 278 277 278 280 281 285
New Single Family Sales 1,201 1,280 1,056 987 1,047 1,111 1,100 1,027 986 974 966 978 995 1,013 1,039 1,057 1,078
% Chge AR 10.1% 6.7% -17.5% -7.4% 7.0% -43.4% -3.8% -24.1% -14.8 -5.0% -3.1% 4.8% 7.4% 7.3% 10.6% 7.1% 8.4%
Existing Home Sales 6,722 7,064 6,244 5,135 5,495 6,790 6,687 6,270 5,228 5,112 5,072 5,132 5,225 5,317 5,453 5,547 5,660
% Chge AR 10.1% 6.6% -17.5% -7.4% 7.0% -8.5% -5.9% -22.7% -51.7% -8.6% -3.1% 4.8% 7.4% 7.3% 10.6% 7.1% 8.4%
Manufactured Home Shipments 130 147 121 110 128 148 124 109 105 105 107 111 115 120 126 131 137
Total New Housing Units:
Total Starts + Man. Home Ship. 2,080 2,220 1,972 1,758 1,861 2,271 1,997 1,884 1,775 1,753 1,739 1,753 1,777 1,804 1,845 1,877 1,917

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